Categories
Population

The Second Article on the Copenhagen Conference

Copenhagen 2–11-2009
© Richard Grossman MD, 2009

“I refuse to believe that it is too late, and that we cannot do anything about [global climate change]. Copenhagen is our date with destiny.”
Mohamed Nasheed, President of Maldives

Good news! We in the United States can decrease carbon emissions! In just two years we have cut our greenhouse gas (GHG) generation by nine percent.
Last month’s column outlined the goals of the UN Climate Change Conference to be held in Copenhagen next month. We are pinning our hopes on Copenhagen for a treaty to limit carbon emissions and thus control climate change. Hopenhagen.org offers a platform to urge international leaders to reach an agreement on emissions.
Perhaps the greatest problem to be faced in Copenhagen is the great economic disparities between countries. Some are extraordinarily wealthy, while people in others live on just a dollar or two a day. In the rich USA we don’t want to give up any of our prosperity, while those in developing areas want to use fossil fuels to improve their standard of living.
Prosperity in the United States was built on the backs of slaves, as well as pillage of the rich, sparsely populated land we appropriated from indigenous people. Slavery was not rejected just for ethical reasons in the 1860s; we had learned how to harness fossil fuels. They are the primary reason for our opulence since then.
Global climate change threatens poorer areas in many different ways. Many countries in Africa are already suffering from desertification. With climate change they will become even less able to support their populations. Recent climate modeling supports the prediction made years ago that hundreds of millions people will starve to death this century.
River flows will decrease from the Hindu Kush as the climate heats up and glaciers melt. This will cause crowded southern Asia to suffer from dwindling grain harvests. Many people in Bangladesh live just a few feet above sea level, and already suffer when hit by cyclones. This will worsen as the oceans rise.
The quote at the beginning of this article is from an exceptional speech delivered this month at the Climate Vulnerable Forum. Scientists predict that the island nation of Maldives will be inundated within a century by rising sea level. Its citizens have no high ground to move to. President Nasheed convened an underwater cabinet meeting to make the point—the ministers donned scuba gear and met under 20 feet of water! The Forum, consisting of eleven developing countries that are most threatened by climate change, met for the first time earlier this month—above water. Read Nasheed’s entire speech at: policyinnovations.org.
What can be done to decrease the human impact on the natural world, including almost eliminating carbon emissions, and still be fair to developing nations?
An obvious way to decrease carbon emissions is to decrease the number of people who cause emissions. Although not popular, investing in family planning has been shown to be the least expensive way to lower GHG production. Remember: 200 million women worldwide want to limit their family size but don’t have access to modern contraception! The impact of limiting family size is greatest in the USA, where each child averted has been estimated to save almost 10,000 tons of CO2 from being emitted.
Another method of decreasing emissions will especially benefit developing countries. One of the tragedies of our era is that rainforests are being destroyed at an alarming rate. Most rainforests are in poorer countries, where people sell the wood to raise their standard of living. Farmers also burn trees to prepare fields for planting. Not only does burning remove a huge sink for GHG, the flames are responsible for a fifth of all CO2 emissions.
Since rainforests are so valuable, why not pay to preserve them? This has proven to be a very successful strategy. One of the first times it was used was to preserve the forest in northern Mexico where one of the last remaining flocks of endangered thickbilled parrots (Rhynchopsitta pachyrhyncha) nest.
Although some of the recent decrease in carbon emissions was due to the economic downturn, some is because people are making conscious decisions to consume less fossil fuel. Locally, LPEA’s Green Power and 4CORE conservation programs are excellent examples of effective conservation programs.
For the sake of our progeny we need to stop global climate change. For humanitarian reasons it needs to be stopped with economic justice for our poorer neighbors. The Copenhagen meeting is key; let us hope that it is successful.

This article may be copied or published but must remain intact, with attribution to the author. I also request that the words “First published in the Durango Herald” accompany any publication. For more information, please write the author at: richard@population-matters.org.

Categories
Population

The First Article on the Copenhagen Conference–10-09

Copenhagen 1
© Richard Grossman MD, 2009

Governing a single nation is complex; building agreement between two hundred diverse countries is a monumental task. Getting those nations to solve a global problem, which affects each country differently, is beyond monumental. The United Nations will attempt to do just that this December.
Human ingenuity and population growth have lead to climate change because of carbon emissions from fossil fuels. People have proposed many ways of limiting climate change. This article touches on the diplomatic approach; a future article will look at the most cost-effective tactic—family planning.
In an attempt to limit climate change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was formed in 1992 at the UN Conference on Environment and Development (the Earth Summit) in Rio. UNFCCC holds annual meetings to consider progress on climate change, called “Conferences of the Parties”. The third one, COP3, was held in Kyoto, Japan, twelve years ago. COP15 will be held in Copenhagen, Denmark this December.
The outcome of COP3 was the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change (often referred to simply as “Kyoto”). This treaty was meant to limit greenhouse gas emissions (especially carbon dioxide). The 184 countries that signed Kyoto agreed to lower emissions by 6 to 8 percent below 1990 levels. Although the USA signed the Protocol, our Senate never ratified it. The Bush administration finally rejected Kyoto in 2001, fearing that its ratification would harm our economy. Kyoto is not strong enough, does not include the USA and expires in 2012. It is time to negotiate another treaty that will be acceptable to all countries.
COP15, nicknamed “Copenhagen”, promises to be a huge affair with 192 countries represented. All the beds in the city have already been reserved so don’t plan on trying to attend at the last minute. The conference will probably not nail down a final document, but we hope that the meeting will generate the skeleton for one. The goal is an enforceable treaty that will significantly decrease greenhouse gas emissions. Hopefully the treaty will be strong enough and enacted quickly enough so that global warming will be limited to one and a half or, at most, two degrees Celsius.
Large UN conferences have preparatory meetings at which much of the conference’s business is actually transacted. Last month the UN hosted the Summit on Climate Change in New York, attended by 100 heads of state. It was unique since its purpose was to encourage participation in COP15 at the highest levels. President Obama was there. In closing his speech he declared “We must seize the opportunity to make Copenhagen a significant step forward in the global fight against climate change.”
At the end of the Summit, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon summarized the meeting by saying: “There is little time left. The opportunity and responsibility to avoid catastrophic climate change is in your hands.”
Since it is unlikely that anyone reading this article attended the Summit or will attend Copenhagen, I suggest two website for information and action. 360.org has the goal of lowering carbon dioxide levels below the current 385 parts per million. Hopenhagen.org strives to make Copenhagen successful. Please join me in signing the petition on this site that begins: “We the peoples of the world urge political leaders to: Seal the Deal at COP15 on a climate agreement that is definitive, equitable and effective.” It ends with the desire that we “…secure climate justice for all.” Equity in greenhouse gas reduction will be the subject of the next column.
Decreasing carbon emissions is vital for our children and grandchildren. The Copenhagen meeting will offer the best chance to do so.

I would like to add a few words about Morley Ballantine, who inspired this column. She was a champion of women’s issues, concerned about human population growth and a defender of access to safe and legal abortion. I asked her in 1994 if she would help me publish a book on population. She said that she couldn’t, but that I could publish it, a chapter at a time, as a column in the Herald. We agreed with a handshake that I would keep the copyrights and be paid $30 a column, which I would donate to Planned Parenthood. Although the Herald has lived up to its part of the bargain, I am not sure that I have always increased my annual gift to Planned Parenthood by $360.
Morley has been one of my inspirations and heroes since then. After a long and illustrious life, she died this month. May she rest in peace.

This article may be copied or published but must remain intact, with attribution to the author. I also request that the words “First published in the Durango Herald” accompany any publication. For more information, please write the author at: richard@population-matters.org.