Category: Carrying Capacity

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Action Carrying Capacity Environment Global Climate Change Population

Stop Wildfires

The article below may be copied or published but must remain intact, with attribution to the author. I also request that the words “First published in the Durango Herald” accompany any publication. For more information, please write the author at: richard@population-matters.org.

 

Stop Wildfires

© Richard Grossman MD, 2008

 

Only you can prevent forest fires

Smokey Bear

 

            Prevention and control of wildfires are big concerns as the summer progresses. For years we had thought that their increased size and numbers were caused by management practices over the past century. Strong evidence supports another theory.

            Our Forest Service tried to maximize the productivity of National Forests by suppressing fire. Their theory, starting a century ago, was that saving forests from fire would make them more fruitful—more board feet of lumber could be harvested. Biologists now recognize that fire is actually beneficial to the ecology of forests. For instance, a fire in a southwestern ponderosa pine forest is usually down low and burns the undergrowth while sparing the trees themselves. Small plants that would sap the water and minerals in the soil are reduced so that he trees can grow better. Furthermore, fire creates an ideal seedbed for ponderosa seedlings by consuming dead organic matter on the soil surface.

            Moreover, suppression of fire can cause problems. The underbrush and dead wood build up. When lightening does strike, there is so much fuel waiting to blaze that an inferno can result.

            An article published in Science magazine reported a detailed study of wildfires in the western United States over the past 35 years. The authors compared this database with information about forestry practices and climate/precipitation. They found that large wildfire activity increased markedly starting in the 1980’s. They also found that the increase in fires correlated best with increased spring and summer temperatures and with earlier spring snowmelt.

            Even if snow pack at the end of the winter were adequate, it would melt off earlier than in the past. This lack of moisture, combined with higher temperatures during spring and summer, make for a long, dry fire season.

            It seems that we are seeing an effect of global climate change close to home.

            Gardeners may have already noted a change. Most seed packages have information about where it is appropriate to grow the plants. For instance, La Plata County is in plant Hardiness Zone 5 or 6, determined by the lowest winter temperatures. The National Arbor Day Foundation has revised its zone map to reflect a warming of the climate from 1990 and 2006. Find more information about this, including a map showing where the zones have changed, in Wikipedia.

            Another example of an effect of climate change is found in the Bay of Bengal, at the delta of the sacred Ganges River. Warming has caused a significant rise in the sea level, submerging islands there. The island of Lohachara was the first to be abandoned, leaving 10,000 landless refugees. Unfortunately, there are many more islands to follow. Two locals, Nick Manning and Tyler Quintano, documented this tragedy in their movie “Between the Tides.”

The whole country of Kiribati is threatened by flooding. Citizens of this collection of 33 low coral atolls peppered in the South Pacific are preparing abandon their homeland as it is gradually being inundated. They may be followed shortly by residents of other Pacific nations, including Tuvalu and Vanuatu. So far, no other country is willing to house these environmental refugees, who may number more than 300,000 people.

Yes, Southwest Colorado had a colder-than-usual winter last year with great snowpack.  No, global climate change does not mean that all parts of the planet are getting warmer, or that there isn’t variation from year to year.

Climate change models predict an increase in average temperature and

greater variation in temperature than we are accustomed to. Models also predict more extreme weather events, such as severe hurricanes. The weight of the evidence is that our climate is changing for the worse—and we are the cause. What can we do about it?

Dr. Chris Rapley, head of the Science Museum in London, has come up with the cheapest and most obvious answer to slow global climate change. We need to improve access to contraception by education and healthcare. “I am not advocating genocide” said Rapley. He does advocate reducing the birthrate—fewer people on the planet will mean less carbon dioxide being pumped into the atmosphere. “To achieve this goal you would only have to spend a fraction of the money that would be needed to bring about technological fixes…. However, everyone has decided, quietly, to ignore the issue.”

            Everyone, that is, other than readers of the Durango Herald. Many of us have recognized that human population growth is the basis of countless problems that we face today.

Categories
Carrying Capacity Durango Herald Environment

Ski

The article below may be copied or published but must remain intact, with attribution to the author. I also request that the words “First published in the Durango Herald” accompany any publication. For more information, please write the author at: richard@population-matters.org.

 

Ski

© Richard Grossman MD, 2008

 

One of the conditions of my wife’s and my courtship was that she teach me how to ski. I got back at her by teaching her to drive.

This has been a cold, snowy winter. Although we’re all grateful for the moisture, many people have had a difficult time with all the shoveling and power outages. It was a real Colorado winter!

If you read the Herald regularly you know that I recently accepted a wager on global climate change. Dr. Roger Cohen bet $5000 that the climate will be cooler in a decade; I hope he is correct. Unfortunately, there is much evidence that the climate is warming, and that we humans are causing the change.

This cold winter does not undermine the concept of global warming. “Global climate change” is a more descriptive term than “global warming” since not all parts of the world will heat up. Furthermore, there is so much variability in climate from year to year that a cold winter doesn’t prove that global warming isn’t happening.

            It would be absolutely amazing if all the people—with all our consumption—didn’t alter the planet’s climate in major ways. One savant predicted that climate change will lead to decreased agricultural productivity. Lack of food will cause the death by starvation of hundreds of millions of people. Our population has outgrown our planet! I am sad that my grandchildren are likely to suffer from the profligate expansionism of my generation. We can help restrain climate change with our daily decisions, including skiing.

            It was late February when I started writing this, and snow was abundant both in the air and on the ground. I shoveled one morning and skied cross country in the afternoon. Both were good exercise. The day before, we hit Purgatory (now officially “Durango Mountain Resort”) for a beautiful day of powder. When we stopped to catch our breath on Sally’s Run, my wife commented “You’re really smiling!”

            On skinny skis we travel through the woods close to our home. With just a short car ride we’re off on forest roads or going cross country on gentle slopes.

There is a lot to see in the winter woods. Deer, elk and cottontail rabbits are common. Once we were treated to a glimpse of an ermine (the short-tailed weasel in its winter coat) as it porpoised through the snow. We also enjoyed tracking a mountain lion walking along a road up north. The big cat had come out of the woods, gone up over the snow bank at the side of the road, and then walked along the road. We were sure that it was a cat because the prints were lacking claw marks. At one place we saw where it had lain down and left a clear imprint of where its tail had rested. We have also had a peek of (or seen the tracks of) voles, mice, coyotes, turkeys and many other animals.

            Comparing alpine and cross country skiing, there are several differences. Skinny skis take us into quiet terrain where we seldom see other people—and usually our dog can come along. Cross country skiing is always a good workout.

            At Purgatory we usually run into friends, so it is more sociable. It is fun to push our skills to see if we can survive the black diamond trails. There is intermittent exercise with a chance to catch your breath on the lifts.

            Another way to look at the comparison is cost. Cross country is quite inexpensive. In addition to financial expense there is also the cost to the environment. Roundtrip to Purgy takes over two hours and a half tank of gas. Although convenient, the lifts that haul us up hill have an environmental price. They run on fossil fuel that generates green house gases. All in all, cross country has much less impact.

            It is possible to estimate the impact human activities have on the environment in terms of the amount of carbon dioxide produced in a year—the “carbon footprint”. This should include direct uses (such as burning fossil fuels) and indirect usage (such as the energy used to manufacture a pair of skis). My favorite calculator (although it doesn’t include one’s choice of skiing) is at www.bp.com. You’ll find the calculator link in the lower right corner.

            We are fortunate to live in an area with wonderful outdoor activities, including skiing. In order to keep our environment healthy, however, we should make conscious choices to decrease our impact.