Carrying Capacity – Population Matters-USA

Image: Global Footprint Network, www.footprintnetwork.org The top of the blue columns indicates the day overshoot started. The red indicates the duration of overshoot.

I was driving up Main Avenue, listening to a book and glancing to the left to find the eye doctor where I had an appointment. I looked at the clock and realized that I was almost late—then I realized that I had overshot my destination and made a “U” turn.

Not all types of overshoot are so easily corrected with a “U” turn. We are in ecological overshoot, which is much more complex than driving past that office. Ecological overshoot occurs when the demands made on a natural ecosystem exceed its regenerative capacity. Globally, we have exceeded our planet’s ability to regenerate what we take by about 80%. To put it simply, we are using more of the planet’s resources than are available.

Ecological overshoot is a little like overspending your credit card. You can get away with overspending for a while, and many people do. The average per capita debt in the USA is over $100,000, and more than $6,000 of that debt is owed to credit cards. You can be assured that the card company or the bank will eventually get their money, however. Unfortunately, it is our progeny who will need to pay for our ecological overshoot. We have overpopulated the planet, and are consuming too much “stuff”.

How can global overshoot be measured? You must know the resources of the planet, and how much of those resources we, humanity, are using. The Global Footprint Network, www.footprintnetwork.org, does those complicated measurements on a routine basis. It is relatively easy for them to calculate our excess use of resources. They have an interesting way of expressing overshoot.

One might think of measuring overshoot as megatons of carbon emissions or perhaps global debt; however, both of these concepts are difficult to understand intuitively. Instead, they use information from every country to determine nature’s “budget”, what our planet can supply. Then they estimate the day when we have used up all of that budget. Back in the early 1970s, we fit in the global budget. There were enough resources to supply all human needs, although they were distributed very inequitably. Since then, however, we have increasingly overspent that budget. Global population has more than doubled, and consumption has quadrupled, plus. We are too many people, consuming too much.

This year Earth Overshoot Day came the earliest ever—on July 24th. That marks the date when humanity has exhausted nature’s budget for the year. It was August 1st last year, and next year will probably be earlier in July. We are overshooting nature’s budget as fast as we’re racking up our national debt!

There are ways to decrease, and perhaps eventually reverse, overshoot. I’m sure you are aware of some; but let’s look at what the experts are saying. The Footprint Network people took advantage of the work done by Project Drawdown and came up with a list of solutions for overshoot. You can learn more at: www.overshootday.org/pop. If we took full advantage of all 76 items on the list, we could move Overshoot Day more than a month later. Two of the most effective solutions, “Educating Girls” and “Family Planning”, are similar in the way they have their effect—by reducing population growth. They are combined at the linked website.

Voluntary family planning is probably the most effective, least expensive and most humane way to slow population growth. Although World Contraception Day was on September 26th, let’s keep this year’s theme in mind: “Breaking Barriers, Building Bridges—Contraceptive Access for All”!

In Africa, as elsewhere in the world, religious beliefs have an influence on the number of children a woman will bear. There are many factors that go into family size choices, and religion is one that is rarely explored.

In the USA, Utah is an example of how religion influences family size. It has had the highest fertility rate, probably in part because of its large number of Mormons (Latter Day Saints). This religion has traditionally encouraged large families, and many Utahans have complied. I know an example from my practice. An LDS patient from Utah requested reversal of her tubal ligation, which was done after her 5^th child was born. She regretted the sterilization and wanted more children. I succeeded in putting her tubes back together, and she ended up with 12 kids!

In many African countries—especially south of the Sahara—the predominant religions encourage high fertility. Many groups of both Christians and Muslims believe that children are gifts from God and feel that contraceptive use is prohibited. Part of the motivation for large families seems to be that there is strength in numbers—especially if a group feels threatened. In addition, agrarian people tend to look upon children as a resource for work, while urban societies may consider kids financial burdens. Furthermore, rural people have less access to contraception than those who live in cities. A third major group of religious believers, those who follow traditional faiths, tend to have many children, perhaps because they are more likely to be subsistence farmers.

What can be done to help women get effective birth control? IUDs and implants, the most effective temporary contraceptive methods, are expensive and require skilled providers. Fortunately, a promising new variation of an old method has won favor in several African countries. For over 50 years women have trusted DMPA (DepoProvera®) for contraception. It is very effective, but requires a shot every 3 months—which is especially difficult for rural women. Some women have sickle cell anemia, an inherited disease in Black Africans, which causes painful crises. DMPA can actually prevent these crises in addition to preventing pregnancy!

Sayana Press® is the same medication in a more convenient form. In a trial, Ugandan women who chose Sayana Press® were taught how to give themselves the first shot in a clinic. They went home with 3 more shots to self-administer at 90-day intervals. This meant only one clinic visit a year—much better for someone who might need to walk miles or take an expensive bus to the nearest family planning clinic.

Education is an important way to empower women and for them to gain control of their fertility. Perhaps this teaching could include mention of the advantages of smaller families. In Sub-Saharan Africa, as in other parts of the world, the more years of school a girl or woman attends, the smaller her family is likely to be. Joyce Asimit Simiyu of northwest Kenya is a good example. She is the oldest of seven kids. Although elementary school was free, her family didn’t have resources for her to go to secondary school. The Quaker Girlchild Education Fund provided scholarship aid for high school and eventually she finished college. She and her husband are the parents of only two.

There are innovative ways that family planning services are delivered in Africa. Catholic dogma is against modern contraceptive methods, but people have found ways around that doctrine. I asked a Catholic nun who runs a health center in Tanzania if they provided contraception. “No,” she said, “we leave that to the Protestants down the road.” Rwanda is another example, where much of the health care is provided by the Catholic Church. After the 1994 genocide, the government recognized the importance of family planning and placed a family planning clinic close to each of the Catholic facilities.

Many places in Africa already exceed the land’s ability to feed its people, yet the world’s fastest growing populations are there. What works to slow growth? In many cultures religious leaders are key to promoting successful family planning. Although they may not be interested in slowing the growth of their congregation, most leaders will want to improve the health of their mothers and children. One of the best ways of doing that is with contraception to lengthen the interval between pregnancies.