Category: Global Climate Change

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Environment Global Climate Change Greenhouse gases Population

Cap and Trade


Cap and Trade

© Richard Grossman MD, 2009

Economics is one of my weak points, so I write about this subject with trepidation. Since “cap and trade” has become an important concept to limit emissions that lead to global climate change, I need to try to understand it.

Not all people agree that greenhouse gases (mainly emitted from our use of fossil fuels) are responsible for climate change. Nor do all people even agree that the climate is warming. However, most scientists have reached agreement that human activities are causing major alterations in the world’s climate. Furthermore, many governments have recognized the hazards of global climate change, and are taking steps to control it. Until we know with certainty what is causing climate change, it is certainly prudent to take precautions to slow the onset of this disaster.

C&T is one of the proposed methods using the free market system to make it unprofitable to emit large quantities of greenhouse gases. The concept was first tested on an international basis with a different type of harmful emissions—those that destroy the ozone layer. The successful Montreal Protocol, signed 20 years ago, gradually forced industry to decrease its production of chloroflurocarbons. Remember, these CFCs were used in aerosol cans and refrigerators, but they have now been replaced by less harmful substitutes.

On a smaller scale, C&T has controlled acid rain in the USA. In this case, the system has been very successful in limiting release of sulfur dioxide, the precursor of acid rain. Since most sulfur dioxide comes from electrical generation with coal, power plants have been forced to install scrubbers that remove this hazardous gas or take other measures such as burning low sulfur coal. As a result, lakes and streams are healthier, fewer trees die—and house paint lasts longer!

To control greenhouse gas emissions using C&T, the first step is to establish current levels of emissions of these gases. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important greenhouse gas since it is emitted in such massive amounts. Estimating CO2 output can be done by inference. For instance, combustion of a ton of coal produces almost three tons of CO2, and one gallon of gasoline generates almost twenty pounds of this greenhouse gas. A well-run company keeps close track of its use of fuel, so its CO2 output is easy to compute.

Many of the top corporations are already inventorying their emissions because they foresee that C&T will become law soon. The current level of CO2 will then become the cap—the maximum that the company can emit. If it exceeds that level, it will have to pay a fine.

The next step is to trade the authority to emit greenhouse gases. If one company can somehow reduce its CO2 emissions by, say, 100 tons below its cap, then it can sell the right to emit that amount to another company.

To lower emissions, this cap is reduced over time at a predetermined rate. For instance, the Montreal Protocol was successful because it cut the use of CFCs in 1994 to just one quarter of the baseline production of these harmful chemicals.

Already there is a market for buying and selling CO2 emissions. The largest market is the European Climate Exchange, where a metric tonne of CO2 emissions is currently worth about 12.5 Euros. The value will increase as time goes on and the cap is lowered.

How can a power company lower its CO2 output? Green power is one of the best ways. Electricity from the sun, hydroelectric or wind emits no CO2!

Would C&T work for limiting human population growth? Many years ago the great anthropologist Margaret Mead suggested that people should be required to meet certain requirements before they could start a family; presumably this would include education about raising children. She proposed that governments issue licenses for childbearing.

Instead of licensing people to be parents, another way to limit fertility would be to cap and trade. So far this method has not been adopted by any government—nor would I recommend it. Making voluntary family planning available has proven to be more effective than coercive programs, without the risk of backlash.

Cap and trade consists simply of placing a limit on harmful emissions, gradually lowering that cap, and having the ability to buy and sell the right to emit pollution. This system has been proven to be an effective way to decrease pollution. Hopefully C&T will work for greenhouse gases, but will never be used for the right to bear children.

This article above may be copied or published but must remain intact, with attribution to the author. I also request that the words “First published in the Durango Herald” accompany any publication. For more information, please write the author at: richard@population-matters.org.

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Action Carrying Capacity Environment Global Climate Change Population

Stop Wildfires

The article below may be copied or published but must remain intact, with attribution to the author. I also request that the words “First published in the Durango Herald” accompany any publication. For more information, please write the author at: richard@population-matters.org.

 

Stop Wildfires

© Richard Grossman MD, 2008

 

Only you can prevent forest fires

Smokey Bear

 

            Prevention and control of wildfires are big concerns as the summer progresses. For years we had thought that their increased size and numbers were caused by management practices over the past century. Strong evidence supports another theory.

            Our Forest Service tried to maximize the productivity of National Forests by suppressing fire. Their theory, starting a century ago, was that saving forests from fire would make them more fruitful—more board feet of lumber could be harvested. Biologists now recognize that fire is actually beneficial to the ecology of forests. For instance, a fire in a southwestern ponderosa pine forest is usually down low and burns the undergrowth while sparing the trees themselves. Small plants that would sap the water and minerals in the soil are reduced so that he trees can grow better. Furthermore, fire creates an ideal seedbed for ponderosa seedlings by consuming dead organic matter on the soil surface.

            Moreover, suppression of fire can cause problems. The underbrush and dead wood build up. When lightening does strike, there is so much fuel waiting to blaze that an inferno can result.

            An article published in Science magazine reported a detailed study of wildfires in the western United States over the past 35 years. The authors compared this database with information about forestry practices and climate/precipitation. They found that large wildfire activity increased markedly starting in the 1980’s. They also found that the increase in fires correlated best with increased spring and summer temperatures and with earlier spring snowmelt.

            Even if snow pack at the end of the winter were adequate, it would melt off earlier than in the past. This lack of moisture, combined with higher temperatures during spring and summer, make for a long, dry fire season.

            It seems that we are seeing an effect of global climate change close to home.

            Gardeners may have already noted a change. Most seed packages have information about where it is appropriate to grow the plants. For instance, La Plata County is in plant Hardiness Zone 5 or 6, determined by the lowest winter temperatures. The National Arbor Day Foundation has revised its zone map to reflect a warming of the climate from 1990 and 2006. Find more information about this, including a map showing where the zones have changed, in Wikipedia.

            Another example of an effect of climate change is found in the Bay of Bengal, at the delta of the sacred Ganges River. Warming has caused a significant rise in the sea level, submerging islands there. The island of Lohachara was the first to be abandoned, leaving 10,000 landless refugees. Unfortunately, there are many more islands to follow. Two locals, Nick Manning and Tyler Quintano, documented this tragedy in their movie “Between the Tides.”

The whole country of Kiribati is threatened by flooding. Citizens of this collection of 33 low coral atolls peppered in the South Pacific are preparing abandon their homeland as it is gradually being inundated. They may be followed shortly by residents of other Pacific nations, including Tuvalu and Vanuatu. So far, no other country is willing to house these environmental refugees, who may number more than 300,000 people.

Yes, Southwest Colorado had a colder-than-usual winter last year with great snowpack.  No, global climate change does not mean that all parts of the planet are getting warmer, or that there isn’t variation from year to year.

Climate change models predict an increase in average temperature and

greater variation in temperature than we are accustomed to. Models also predict more extreme weather events, such as severe hurricanes. The weight of the evidence is that our climate is changing for the worse—and we are the cause. What can we do about it?

Dr. Chris Rapley, head of the Science Museum in London, has come up with the cheapest and most obvious answer to slow global climate change. We need to improve access to contraception by education and healthcare. “I am not advocating genocide” said Rapley. He does advocate reducing the birthrate—fewer people on the planet will mean less carbon dioxide being pumped into the atmosphere. “To achieve this goal you would only have to spend a fraction of the money that would be needed to bring about technological fixes…. However, everyone has decided, quietly, to ignore the issue.”

            Everyone, that is, other than readers of the Durango Herald. Many of us have recognized that human population growth is the basis of countless problems that we face today.